Short answer: in the current late-March race slot, rain falls on about 36% of days at Suzuka — and the bigger problem is the cold, not the rain. The average overnight low in late March is 4.4°C, against 15.4°C in the old early-October slot. Grandstands are open and exposed.
This page is built from 47 years of Japan Meteorological Agency daily observations (1979–2025) at Kameyama, the closest station to Suzuka Circuit — about 9 km west, at almost exactly the same latitude. These are measurements, not a forecast: what actually happened, day by day, over 47 years.
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※料金・空室状況は変動します。最新の情報は各予約サイトでご確認ください。
The Japanese Grand Prix moved to spring — and that changed the weather problem
Suzuka held the Japanese Grand Prix in October for most of its history. Since 2024 the race has moved to late March or early April: 7 April 2024, 6 April 2025, and 27–29 March 2026.
Most weather guides still describe the October race. The numbers below are for the slots actually in use.
Rain probability at Suzuka, day by day (late March)
Each row is one calendar date, across 47 years. “Rain” means at least 1 mm of precipitation recorded that day; “Heavy” means at least 5 mm. Daily totals run midnight to midnight, so they include overnight rain that may not affect track running.
| Date | Rain (≥1 mm) | Heavy (≥5 mm) | Avg high | Avg low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 21 | 38% | 28% | 13.4°C | 4.1°C |
| March 22 | 43% | 26% | 14.2°C | 3.9°C |
| March 23 | 30% | 26% | 13.7°C | 4.4°C |
| March 24 | 47% | 30% | 13.6°C | 4.1°C |
| March 25 | 40% | 17% | 13.7°C | 4.2°C |
| March 26 | 34% | 19% | 14.1°C | 4°C |
| March 27 | 23% | 17% | 14.8°C | 3.9°C |
| March 28 | 30% | 21% | 15.4°C | 4.8°C |
| March 29 | 34% | 23% | 15.2°C | 4.9°C |
| March 30 | 43% | 21% | 15.7°C | 5.2°C |
| March 31 | 34% | 17% | 15.5°C | 5.3°C |
The driest date in the window is 27 March (23%); the wettest is 24 March (47%). Spread across a three-day race weekend, the chance of seeing rain on at least one of the days is considerably higher than any single-day figure.
Early April, for years when the race lands there
| Date | Rain (≥1 mm) | Heavy (≥5 mm) | Avg high | Avg low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 32% | 19% | 15.6°C | 5.6°C |
| April 2 | 30% | 19% | 16.3°C | 5.9°C |
| April 3 | 21% | 13% | 16.2°C | 6.3°C |
| April 4 | 43% | 26% | 16.6°C | 6°C |
| April 5 | 26% | 21% | 16.9°C | 6.2°C |
| April 6 | 40% | 21% | 18.1°C | 6.9°C |
| April 7 | 49% | 32% | 16.6°C | 7°C |
| April 8 | 32% | 23% | 17.3°C | 7.3°C |
| April 9 | 26% | 17% | 18°C | 6.8°C |
| April 10 | 32% | 28% | 17.4°C | 7.3°C |
Spring vs autumn: the slot change made Suzuka colder, not drier
This is the finding that matters most for anyone booking a trip. Moving the race from October to late March did not reduce the chance of rain — it cut the temperature by roughly 10°C at night.
| Race window | Rain (≥1 mm) | Heavy (≥5 mm) | Avg high | Avg low | Sunny days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late March (21–31) | 36% | 22% | 14.5°C | 4.4°C | 54% |
| Early April (1–10) | 33% | 22% | 16.9°C | 6.5°C | 54% |
| Late September (20–30) | 41% | 28% | 25.4°C | 17.4°C | 42% |
| Early October (1–10) | 36% | 24% | 23.6°C | 15.4°C | 46% |
Rain odds are essentially flat across all four windows — 33% to 41%. What changes is comfort. In late March the average low is 4.4°C; in early October it is 15.4°C. A grandstand seat is metal, exposed, and you are sitting still for hours. Spectators who packed for “Japan in autumn” and arrived in late March have been caught out.
What was actually measured on recent race days
Precipitation recorded at Kameyama (9 km from the circuit) on each recent Japanese Grand Prix race day. This is what the rain gauge near the track registered over the full calendar day — it is not a statement about track conditions during the race, which can differ over a few kilometres.
| Race day | Rain measured | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2014 | 15.0 mm | 20.1°C | 17.4°C |
| 13 Oct 2019 | 0.5 mm | 21.3°C | 16.5°C |
| 9 Oct 2022 | 16.0 mm | 19.5°C | 12.3°C |
| 24 Sep 2023 | 0.0 mm | 28.4°C | 16.9°C |
| 7 Apr 2024 | 0.0 mm | 26.1°C | 9.4°C |
| 6 Apr 2025 | 13.0 mm | 14.2°C | 8.2°C |
Three of the last six race days registered more than 13 mm near the circuit. That is close to the long-run expectation: heavy rain (≥5 mm) shows up on 22–24% of days in every race window.
Why Suzuka rain is hard to predict
Suzuka Circuit sits on a plain that opens east toward Ise Bay, with the Suzuka Mountains rising immediately to the west. Moist air forced up over that ridge condenses and falls as rain — orographic precipitation. Two consequences follow.
First, annual rainfall is high: June averages 267.6 mm and September 267.9 mm. Second, and more relevant on a race weekend, the rain is often local and arrives fast. It can fall on one part of the circuit and not another, which is a large part of why Suzuka has a reputation as a track where the weather decides races.
What to wear at Suzuka in late March
Daytime (about 14.5°C): a long-sleeved layer plus a proper jacket. Wind off the plain makes it feel colder than the number.
Morning and evening (about 4.4°C): this is the part people underestimate. A winter coat, gloves, and a scarf are not excessive. Grandstand seats are cold to sit on for six hours; a seat cushion and adhesive heat pads make a genuine difference.
Rain: umbrellas are impractical in a grandstand. A two-piece rain suit keeps your hands free and does not block the view behind you.
Suzuka weather month by month (47 years)
| Month | Avg high | Avg low | Rain days (≥1 mm) | Monthly rainfall | Sunny |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 8.4°C | 0.2°C | 24.1% | 52.9 mm | 52.2% |
| February | 9.2°C | 0.5°C | 28.8% | 67.4 mm | 51.4% |
| March | 13°C | 3.2°C | 35.1% | 124.8 mm | 53.7% |
| April | 18.7°C | 8.1°C | 34.2% | 158.7 mm | 54.5% |
| May | 23°C | 12.8°C | 34.8% | 204.3 mm | 46.7% |
| June | 25.9°C | 17.7°C | 41.9% | 267.6 mm | 31% |
| July | 29.8°C | 22.1°C | 40.5% | 232.2 mm | 34.5% |
| August | 31.2°C | 23°C | 34.7% | 200.8 mm | 48.2% |
| September | 27.4°C | 19.4°C | 41.6% | 267.9 mm | 42.6% |
| October | 21.8°C | 12.9°C | 32.1% | 160.3 mm | 52.1% |
| November | 16.5°C | 7°C | 23.1% | 77.9 mm | 56.7% |
| December | 11°C | 2.2°C | 23% | 50.3 mm | 57.2% |
October is the driest of the plausible race months by rainfall (160.3 mm) and the sunniest (52.1%). June and September are the two to avoid: over 267 mm each.
How these numbers were produced
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency daily observations for Kameyama (AMeDAS), 1979–2025, retrieved from the JMA past-data archive and aggregated here. Temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration are direct measurements.
The “sunny” column is estimated. JMA records an observer-判定 daily weather summary only at staffed observatories, and Kameyama is an automated station. Sunny/cloudy/rain here is inferred from measured rainfall and sunshine duration: at least 12 mm of rain counts as a rain day (below 3°C, snow); otherwise a day is sunny if sunshine exceeded 50% of the possible daylight hours, cloudy if not.
Accuracy check: the same rule was applied to 72,335 days at four staffed observatories (Kumagaya, Tokyo, Osaka, Yokkaichi) where the observer record also exists. It matched the observed category on 84.4% of days, and the aggregate shares were almost identical: observed 50.8% sunny / 38.8% cloudy / 10.0% rain, versus estimated 51.4% / 38.5% / 9.9%. Thresholds were fitted on Kumagaya only; the other three stations were held out.
Caveat: Kameyama is 9 km from the circuit. On a day of scattered showers the two can differ.
More
Suzuka F1 weather — frequently asked questions
Going to Suzuka? Book early.
Hotels within reach of the circuit fill up months ahead of a Grand Prix weekend, and prices rise sharply. Securing a room early also lets you move your dates if the forecast turns.
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※料金・空室状況は変動します。最新の情報は各予約サイトでご確認ください。